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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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